Jacksonville housing market, October 2026: what September's numbers mean for you

Every month I look at the same public numbers so I'm not guessing about the market. Here's my read on September's listing data and this month's mortgage rates, and what I'd do with them. These are area wide numbers, so they can't tell you what one particular house is worth. That takes a look at the recent sales that truly compare.

A quick note on the data. The listing figures come from the Realtor.com Residential Listings Database, published monthly through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). They track homes listed for sale and their asking prices, not final sale prices. Rates come from Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Freddie Mac). My market report updates these figures automatically, so check it for the newest numbers.

The short version

Across the Jacksonville metro, which covers Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau and Baker counties, the median asking price in September was $379,000. That's down 3.9% from $394,500 a year earlier (FRED). There were 7,799 active listings, about 13.7% fewer than the 9,035 a year ago (FRED). The typical listing spent 66 days on the market, down from 75 (FRED).

So asking prices are a little lower, there's less to choose from, and homes are moving somewhat faster than they were last fall. One headline number never tells the whole story.

The rate move is the bigger story

The 30 year fixed rate averaged 7.40% in Freddie Mac's survey for the week of October 15, 2026. It was 6.66% at the end of August and 6.27% a year ago (Freddie Mac). The 15 year fixed averaged 6.71%.

Here's what that does to a payment. On a $300,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.66% come to about $1,928 a month. At 7.40% it's about $2,077, roughly $149 more every month, for the same house. On a $400,000 loan the gap is about $199. Those are my own calculations for a standard 30 year fixed loan, before taxes, insurance and any HOA. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment and loan type, so get a real quote from a licensed loan officer.

Price cuts are common

In September, 3,444 metro listings had a price reduction (FRED). Measured against active listings, that's about 44%, close to the 44% share from a year earlier. In other words, a lot of sellers started higher than buyers were willing to go. The median asking price per square foot was $213, compared with $216 a year ago (FRED).

County by county

Sources: FRED series for Duval (price, listings, days), St. Johns (price, listings, days) and Clay (price, listings, days).

St. Johns County stands out. Active listings there were down about 18.8% from a year ago, and median days on market fell from 88 to 72 (FRED). New listings in St. Johns actually rose about 5% from last September, so homes are coming on, they're just selling faster. In Duval, about 48% of active listings had a price cut in September, the highest share of the three counties by my math from the FRED counts (FRED). Clay's median asking price ticked up from August, but it's still about 1% below last year.

What it means if you're buying

Higher rates hurt, but they also thin out the competition. With price cuts this common, there's often room to negotiate on price, repairs or closing costs, especially on homes that have been sitting. I'd do three things right now:

• Get pre approved at today's rate, then run the full payment, including taxes, insurance and any CDD, in my monthly cost tool.
• Look closely at homes past the 60 day mark. Ask why they haven't sold before you write an offer.
• Ask your lender about rate options, like paying points or a temporary buydown, and compare the real cost.

If you're not quite ready, my home buying game plan walks through what to do first.

What it means if you're selling

Pricing matters more than it did a year ago. Buyers are doing payment math at 7.40%, and they're comparing your home with the many listings that already cut their price. A home priced right from day one usually beats a home chasing the market down. Preparation helps too, since homes are still moving in about two months. I'd start with a real home valuation based on recent nearby sales, and read my notes on preparing your home to sell.

I'll post the next market note after the October listing data comes out next month.